A great divide is opening up in US foreign policy, creating a clear separation between how it treats allies like India and adversaries like Russia when it comes to energy trade. This policy divergence is causing significant friction and debate.
On one side of the divide is India, which is facing severe economic consequences for its engagement with Russia’s energy sector. A 50% tariff on its goods serves as a powerful deterrent, signaling that such trade will not be tolerated.
On the other side is Russia, which is being offered a potential pathway back to economic partnership with the US. The discussions around Exxon Mobil’s re-entry into the Sakhalin-1 project suggest that for the right price—peace in Ukraine—the rules can be bent.
This great divide highlights a policy that is not based on a universal set of principles, but on a case-by-case assessment of strategic advantage. It separates the world into those who must follow the rules and those with whom the US is willing to negotiate, creating a more complex and less predictable international system.