Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made a precise calculation Thursday, arguing that Iranian crude oil stranded on tankers can bridge a critical two-week supply gap created by Iran’s Strait of Hormuz blockade. Bessent revealed the administration is considering temporarily lifting sanctions on approximately 140 million barrels of Iranian crude in international waters to help stabilize global prices above $100 per barrel.
Iran’s Hormuz closure has been removing between 10 and 14 million barrels of daily oil supply from global markets for close to two weeks, creating a sustained and severe price shock. The disruption has raised significant economic concerns worldwide and has placed intense pressure on the administration to find supply solutions that can deliver meaningful and timely relief.
Bessent identified the two-week bridge as the critical window during which the administration’s broader campaign against the Hormuz blockade is expected to gain traction. The approximately 140 million barrels of Iranian crude on tankers, he said, represent a supply volume precisely calibrated to fill that window if sanctions are temporarily waived and the oil redirected from its Chinese destination to global markets.
The Treasury has previously demonstrated the viability of this approach through a waiver for Russian oil that added approximately 130 million barrels to world supply. An additional unilateral US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release beyond the G7’s 400 million barrel coordinated commitment is also being planned, with the administration ruling out any engagement in financial oil market instruments.
Policy and compliance experts questioned the precision of the plan’s assumptions. They argued that regardless of the two-week bridge calculation, any Iranian oil revenues would benefit the Tehran regime and could fund military and proxy activities during a period of active conflict. Critics warned that the plan’s two-week framing may create a false sense of strategic clarity around a measure with complex and lasting geopolitical consequences.